Industrialists optimistic : 2005 -2.1% inflation

A survey among 120 top industrialists made by the Manufacturers Association, the result of which were published last week, showed that Israeli manufacturers are highly optimistic about 2005.
 
The optimism index for the first quarter of 2005 rose to 3.52 points out of a possible 5 points, compared with 3.44 points in the fourth quarter of 2004.
 
Exchange rate
Manufacturers, predicted 2.1% inflation, a Shekel-Dollar exchange rate of NIS 4.4059, by the end of the first quarter, and a Shekel-Euro exchange rate of NIS 5.6117.
 
Stock exchange & foreign investment
79% of respondents predicted that the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) will rise further, 11% of whom predict a major rise; 11% predicted that the TASE would fall slightly. 81% of the respondents predicted an increase in foreign investment, and 68% predicted an increase in domestic investment.
 
Private consumption
Respondents were much more optimistic about private consumption, 76% of the respondents predicted that private consumption would continue to grow, 21% believed that it would not change, and 3% predict that it would fall.
 
Unemployment
Predictions about unemployment are more cautious. 53% of the respondents predicted a slight decline in unemployment, 40% believed that there would be no change, and 8% predicted that unemployment would rise.
 
Exports
37% of the respondents predict that the budget deficit would grow, 42% believed that it would remain unchanged, and 21% predicted that it would fall.
 
Business activity
67% of the respondents predicted that business activity in their industry would rise, and 3% predicted that it would fall. 54% of the respondents predicted that public consumption would rise slightly in the first quarter, and 13% predicted that it would fall.
 
GDP
87% of the respondents predicted that GDP would grow this year, compared with 3% who predicted that it would fall slightly. Predictions for industrial output are rather similar: 82% of the respondents predicted that it would grow, 10% believed that it would remain unchanged, and 8% predicted that it would fall slightly. 89% of the respondents predicted that exports of goods and services would grow, and 3% predicted that exports would fall.